Conservation planning under climate change: accounting for adaptive potential and migration capacity in species distribution models

نویسندگان

  • Andreas Hamann
  • Sally N. Aitken
چکیده

Aim A number of assumptions underpinning the use of species distribution models to predict biological responses to climate change are violated for temperate and boreal tree species that are widespread, long-lived and genetically adapted to local climate conditions. To address this situation, we propose a methodology to account for the potential effects of genetic structure, adaptive potential and limited migration capacity.

برای دانلود رایگان متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Identifying Potential Climatic Refugia to Protect Populations of Goitered Gazelle (Gazelle subgutturosa) in the Face of Climate Change (A case Study: Central Iran)

Currently, conservation planning based on the future distribution of species is among the most important adaptive conservation approaches to reduce the  negative impacts of climate change on species. In this study, by adapting an ensemble modelling approach, scenarios of RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 and five global circulation models,  the distribution of Goitered gazelle (Gazellea subgutturosa) under c...

متن کامل

Modeling the current and future suitable habitat distribution of Fritillaria imperialis under climate change scenarios and using three general circulation model in Iran

Climate change may pose challenges to the conservation of plant species such as the Fritillaria imperialis that have narrow geographical distribution. In this study, the modeling suitable habitats of F.imperialis in Iran was done in the current condition and under climate change (2050). For this purpose, 78 species presence data along with 12 environmental variables including bioclimatic, physi...

متن کامل

Predicting the impact of climate change on the distribution of Pistacia atlantica in the Central Zagros

Predicting the potential distribution of plants in response to climate change is essential for their conservation and management. This study aimed at predicting the effect of climate change on the geographical distribution of Pistacia atlantica in Chaharmahal & Bakhtiari province in the central Zagros region. In this study, we used 19 Bioclimatic variables derived from rainfall and temperature ...

متن کامل

Modeling Current and Future Potential Distributions of Caspian Pond Turtle (Mauremys caspica) under Climate Change Scenarios

Although turtles are the most threatened taxonomic group within the reptile class, we have a very limited understanding of how turtles respond to climate change. Here, we evaluated the effects of climate changes on the geographical distribution of Caspian pond turtle (Mauremys caspica). We used an ensemble approach by combining six species distribution models including artificial neural network...

متن کامل

Predicting the geographical distribution of Alopecurus textilis Boiss rangeland species on basis Consensus approach of climate change in Mazandaran province

The climate changes have an important role in distribution of plant species. Statistical species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to predict the changes in species distribution under climate change scenarios. In the peresent study, the distribution of Alopecurus textilis in the current and future climate condition (2050) under the influence of climate change and two scenarios of RCP 4...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

عنوان ژورنال:

دوره   شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2013